How do I run this play?
6–8 1–2 hours Moderate to Hard
As a group, discuss the trends that may impact your organisation and rank them from high to low impact. The top three most impactful trends are the ones you will focus on in this play.
Using the Trend Implications Analysis canvas and Post-It notes, you will need to fill out the following columns:
Describe each of the most impactful trends, thinking about:
- Why is the trend important to the topic you are exploring?
- What is its current trajectory?
- What data sources did you use to understand this trend?
Place your descriptions in the boxes in the left-hand column, using one box per trend.
Looking at the middle column of the canvas, think about what might cause the trends to change trajectory. As a group, discuss and record what might cause a trend to increase, decrease or stay the same. Record your impacts on the canvas.
Some other questions to consider include:
- What would be the impact of this change in your operating environment?
- What impacts are such changes likely to have?
Next, you need to consider the implications of these changes for your group or topic by working through each of the boxes on the right-hand side of the canvas.
For each of the trajectory changes, think about:
- What are the implications of this change?
- What does it mean for the work that you do?
- What are the problems you are responding to?
Finally, reflect on what you have discussed and uncovered while running this play. You can have an open discussion or use the following questions as a guide:
- What do the patterns that have emerged mean for the work you do?
- Which trajectories pose the most risk?
- Which trajectories open up the biggest opportunities?
- How might we need to respond if the unexpected changes occur?
- Should something change, are we resilient enough to survive it?
The Trend Implication Analysis Canvas and Facilitation Guide by Aurecon is licensed under CC BY 4.0
These conversations can be tricky and require you to think logically outside the box about what might change and how. You will find some trends will be easier than others, but it is the ones you struggle with where you may find the most insight.
Try and focus the conversation on what might cause the trend to change, and what impact it would have.