How do I run this play?
6–8 1.5–2 minutes Moderate
As a group, select a topic or area of investigation. Have a brief discussion about the issue and clarify the objectives of the workshop.
When you have decided on your topic, identify and describe which aspect of change to explore, and the timeframe in which it would occur. Using Post-It notes and the Futures Wheel canvas, write out the change as if it has already happened and place it in the centre circle.
The next step is to consider the sequential order of impacts.
First order impacts
As a group ask yourselves:
- If this change is true, what are the immediate impacts?
- What are the first impacts you would expect to see?
Remember to be specific and detailed when describing the changes you would expect to see. Think about both the positive and negative impacts of what has become different.
Write these insights on the Post-It notes and place them in the first set of circles around the focus issue.
Second order impacts
Now look at the next ring of circles. Based on the first order of impacts, in your group discuss the following question, and be specific and detailed in describing the second order impacts.
- What are the impacts and implications of this change?
Continue this process as you work your way around each of the first order impacts.
Third order impacts
For the final set of impacts and implications, look at the second order impacts you have detailed and identify what change they would generate if they were to be true.
As with the previous sections, consider the positive and negative consequences of change.
Finally, as a group discuss the patterns, ideas and opportunities that have emerged. Some questions to discuss include:
- How do different impacts connect to each other?
- Have you identified more positive or negative impacts of change? Does this actively reflect what we think about this change? What might that mean?
- Are there any impacts that contradict each other?
- These patterns can be used to develop forecasts, what narratives and shifts have emerged?
The Futures Wheel Canvas and Facilitation Guide by Aurecon is licensed under CC BY 4.0
Do your research!
You may have a group that comes from different backgrounds and might not be aware of the issue. Bring them up to speed by inviting speakers, create some pre-reading, ask participants to do some homework beforehand.
Stay in the moment!
When doing this exercise, it can be tempting to explore the next order of impacts as you go, but it is best to focus on the first order impacts first.
When discussing the impacts, you may consider:
- Negative and positive impacts
- Social impacts
- Technical impacts
- Economic impacts