Will our unique human 'craft' skills be lost?

A 2017 study by Gartner Research predicted that while 1.8 million jobs would be lost worldwide by 2020 due to automation, 2.3 million new jobs would be created. As history has taught us, any new processes or transformations result in temporary job losses, followed by a readjustment as new opportunities emerge, and researchers believe that automation, particularly when combined with the human skills required to drive new technology, will be no different.

The key is upskilling and job enrichment. As machines increasingly take over low-level, mundane and heavy-lift tasks, humans will be required to hone their skills even further, developing new, smarter ways of working.

While it might mean that robots take over some of the traditional ‘crafts’ we have seen in construction, such as carpentry, bricklaying and electrical wiring, skills in programming, coding, detailing, customising and optimising will come to the fore.

There is a lot for us to consider

There is a burning platform for change in the design and construction of our built environments. Increasing urban populations, rising demand for residential, commercial, social and public buildings, escalating costs and declining profits, means a step-change needs to occur to create a democratic and sustainable sector for the future. We need to ask ourselves:

What needs to change in the current design process to allow the wider adoption of industrialised construction?
How can the digital documentation the design industry produces be enhanced?
How will industrialised construction create a place of belonging in cities and communities?
What new business models will be required for industrialised construction to accelerate?
How do industrialised construction and design flair co-exist?
Do we need to integrate more technology into the process to enable it to scale?
Is there a place for a hybrid version of industrialised construction in the industry?

While prefabrication, modularisation and industrialised design and construction in general is occurring in pockets around the world and has been for decades, it is not occurring broadly, and not at a fast-enough pace for significant change.

Imagine that future, disruptive innovation at its finest.

Drawing on Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation, the time is ripe for a new entrant to emerge at the bottom of the market, creating a maelstrom of change akin to what Henry Ford achieved with the car industry in the early 1900s and Uber and Airbnb have delivered to transportation and travel in the 21st century.

Low cost, commoditised products available to many through construction robotics and 3D printing systems, with minimum human interface on the actual construction site, is the only way in which we will meet the global need for buildings of the future. New processes, technologies and materials are enablers already in place to assist with this transformation.

All that is now required is a mindset and behaviour shift of designers, developers, owners, suppliers, governments and end-users, towards a new breed of buildings that are built by robots, standardised, commoditised and affordable. While not likely to cater to all, there will still be room for customisation and optimisation. Questions of ethics and craft will also need to be addressed, to ensure a smooth transition. The gains will need to be greater than the losses, for customers to make the shift.

But as Christensen points out, the ‘job that needs to be done’, in this case, hiring an affordable and functional building to provide a house, office, university or healthcare facility is a far more relevant opportunity for widespread innovation than merely tweaking an existing product or service hoping to meet ongoing customer demand.

The buildings of the future may arrive on-site via a 3D printer in a factory or may in fact be assembled in-situ by robotic processes.

They may take weeks rather than months or years to be constructed, and their cost may be a tenth of what they are today. Entire communities could be assembled cheaply and quickly, providing homes and public buildings for currently homeless populations, or at least those for whom home ownership is beyond their reach. On the other end of the scale, high-end buildings featuring customised designs could still be available for those with the means to purchase them.

There is a lot for us to consider – we don’t have all the answers now, but as long as we keep asking the right questions, solutions will eventually emerge.

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